Warning time analysis for emergency response in Sakarya city, Turkey against possible Marmara earthquake
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20528/cjsmec.2015.07.024
View Counter: Abstract | 1420 times | ‒ Full Article | 349 times |
Full Text:
PDFAbstract
Sakarya, one of the biggest cities in the Marmara prefecture, with 835 thousand population has suffered severe damages due to the North Anatolian Fault System (NAFS) which is a major active right lateral-moving fault in northern Anatolia running along the tectonic boundary between the Eurasian Plate and the Anatolian Plate. One of the biggest disasters was on 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake with Mw 7.4. The occurrence and the source information of huge events in the region indicate that an earthquake is expecting in near future from the underneath of the Marmara Sea. Therefore, this seismically vulnerable city needs urgent strong motion prediction and reliable Earthquake Early Warning System. The city is preparing now for further NAFS earthquakes and it is essential to inform society about the warning time of a possible imminent earthquake so that precautionary actions can be taken by the government officials, companies and individuals. This study highlights available warning time for the city. Warning time is calculated by considering the theoretic P- and S- wave velocities for Marmara region. Results indicate that Sakarya will have approximately 37.9 second in average with 7.4 second standard deviation before the arrival of strong shaking to the city.
Keywords
References
Böse M, Allen R, Brown H, Gua G, Fischer M, Hauksson E, Jordan T (2014). CISN Shake Alert: An earthquake early warning demonstration system for California. In: Wenzel F, Zschau J, editors. Early Warning for Geological Disasters. Springer Inc., Berlin Heidelberg, Germany. 49-69.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12233-0_3
Cua G, Heaton T (2007). The virtual seismologist (VS) method: A bayesian approach to earthquake early warning, in Seismic early warning. In: Gasparini P, Manfredi G, Zschau J, editors. Seismic Early Warning. Springer Inc., Berlin Heidelberg, Germany. 85-132.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-72241-0_7
Disaster & Emergency Management Authority (2010). Strong ground motion database of Turkey. Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry, Ankara, http://daphne.deprem.gov.tr.
Emre O, Duman TY, Özalp S, Elmacı H, Olgun Ş, Şaroğlu F (2013). 1/1.125.000 ölçekli Türkiye diri fay haritası. Maden Tetkik ve Arama Genel Müdürlüğü Özel Yayınlar Serisi, Ankara, Turkey (in Turkish).
Horiuchi S, Negishi H, Abe K, Kamimura A, Fujinawa Y (2005). An Automatic Processing System for Broadcasting Earthquake Alarms. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 95(2), 708-718.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120030133
Kalafat D, Gürbüz C, Üçer SB (1987). Batı Türkiye'de kabuk ve üst manto yapısının araştırılması. Deprem Araştırma Bülteni, 59, 43-64 (in Turkish).
Koçyiğit A (2000). Segmentation, kinematics and seismicity of the North Anatolian fault system in Marmara Sea region. NATO Advanced Research Seminar, 17-18.
Kuleli HS, Gürbüz C, Horasan G, Gülen L (1996). Seismic velocity distribution in the Aegean region. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 77, 476-477.
Kuyuk HS, Motosaka M (2009). Real-time ground motion forecasting using front-site waveform data based on artificial neural network. Journal of Disaster Research, 4(4).
Kuyuk HS, Motosaka M (2009). Forward spectral forecasting of ground motion with the information of earthquake early warning systems for structural control. Journal of Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering, 9(3).
http://dx.doi.org/10.5610/jaee.9.3_14
Kuyuk HS, Motosaka M (2008). Development of an integrated early warning and structural monitoring system to real time earthquake information, Part 3: Ground motion prediction using artificial neural network. Tohoku Journal of Natural Disaster Science, 44, 23-29.
Kuyuk HS, Motosaka M, Homma M (2008). Spectral forecasting of earthquake ground motion using regional and national earthquake early warning systems for advanced engineering application against approaching Miyagi-ken Oki earthquakes. 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, China.
Kuyuk HS, Motosaka M, Homma M (2008). Available warning time for emergency response in Sendai city, Japan against Miyagi-oki subduction earthquakes based on national and regional earthquake early warning system. 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, China.
Kuyuk HS, Motosaka M (2008). Ground motion forecasting using a hybrid earthquake early warning system based on artificial neural network: A case study for miyagi-ken Oki earthquakes. Meeting of Architectural Institute of Japan, Hiroshima, Japan.
Kuyuk, HS, Motosaka M, Homma M (2008). Forecasting parameters of earthquake ground motion using regional and national earthquake early warning systems with artificial neural network for Miyagi-oki subduction earthquakes. International Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Disaster Mitigation, Jakarta, Indonesia.
Kuyuk HS, Allen RM (2013a). A global approach to provide magnitude estimates for earthquake early warning alerts. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(24), 6329-6333.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058580
Kuyuk HS, Allen RM (2013b). Optimal seismic network density for earthquake early warning: A case study from California. Seismological Research Letters, 84(6), 946-954.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220130043
Kuyuk HS, Allen RM, Brown H, Hellweg M, Henson I, Neuhauser D (2014). ElarmS-2: Designing a network-based earthquake early warning system for California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(1), 162-173.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120130146
Le Pichon X, Şengör AMC, Demirbağ E, Rangin C, İmren C, Armijo R, Görür N, Çağatay N, Mercier de Lepinay B, Meyer B, Saatçılar R, Tok B (2001). The active main Marmara fault. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 192(4), 595-616.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(01)00449-6
Motosaka M, Homma M, Kuyuk HS, Arrecis F (2008). Development of an integrated early warning and structural monitoring system to real time earthquake information. AIJ Journal of Technology and Design, 14, 28.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3130/aijt.14.675
Okada T, Umino N, Ito Y, Matsuzawa T, Hasegawa A, Kamiyama M (2001). Source processes of 15 September 1998 M 5.0 Sendai, Northeastern Japan, earthquake and its M 3.8 foreshock by waveform inversion. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 91(6), 1607-1618.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120000240
Zor E (2002). The Shear Wave Velocity Structure of the Eastern Marmara Region by Using Receiver Function Analysis. Ph.D. thesis, Boğaziçi University, Turkey.
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.